La revista británica The Lancet parece haber dejado de lado su habitual sensatez para publicar un editorial en el que pronostica, luego de la muerte de Castro, un período de caos en el que puede producirse una catástrofe humanitaria, frente a lo cual le sugiere a USA que prepare ayuda!
The Lancet 2006; 368:554
Planning for Cuba’s transition
Since Fidel Castro’s Aug 1 decicion to temporarily delegate leadership of Cuba to his brother, there has been an escalation in rhetoric aimed at influencing the transition to a post-Castro state. Uncertainty abounds, but if there is any consensus on what the future holds it is that Cuba will experience a period of rapid and uncomfortable change.
For health, the consequences are potentially dire. The central importance of Cuba’s purportedly efficient health system to its national identity means that health indicators will be the most sensitive measure of decline. Castro’s death, even if years from now, could herald a complex emergency: a difficult period of violence and internal divisions that put Cuba on the road to becoming a failed state. Cuba’s citizens are likely to require immediate humanitarian assistance to meet water, health, food, and shelter needs that have built up over years of neglect. Injustices and inequalities, although already present, will become more obvious and could lead to social unrest. For these reasons, it is essential to national stability that a functioning health system is maintained.
As Cuba’s closest neighbour, the USA must be ready to help meet immediate humanitarian needs, if the worst-case scenario arises. If suggestions made last month, by the US Presidential Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba, are heeded, resources of US$80 million could be set aside for the task. But the challenges are immense. A massive influx of aid will overwhelm Cuba’s decrepit distribution network, and chaotic responses by Cubans in south Florida could undermine a coordinated response.
To help ward off instability, what is most needed from external actors is a considered plan to strengthen Cuba’s coping mechanisms. But because of the myriad uncertainties about how robust the Cuban health system actually is, planning for transition must be based on a careful analysis—better than the current guesswork—of what Cuba’s citizens will need the most.
Es curioso que se le sugiera a un país que ha tenido una catástrofe humanitaria (y moral) como en el caso del Katrina, que brinde apoyo a uno que maneja sus huracanes con absoluta solvencia, siendo ejemplo mundial al respecto.
Ver Editorial en: http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS014067360669171X/fulltext. Se pueden enviar comentarios y creo que sería pertinente que los latinoamericanos lo hagamos.